Is Anyone Right About the Future of Cultivated Meat? Does It Matter?

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As cultivated meat continues to attract investors and regulatory approval, questions about its long-term viability are on the rise.

Bring up the topic of cultivated meat in a group setting and you’re likely to get all kinds of responses. It’s not only confusing, it’s controversial, sometimes even contentious stuff. What exactly is going on with meat “grown” in bioreactors? Is it meat? Is it safe? Is it healthy? Is it really capable of doing away with our dependence on industrialized animal agriculture?

Bring it up at that fictitious dinner party and you’re sure to hear a few viewpoints: there’s the wide-eyed enthusiasm, likely from early adopters of other tech—Tesla drivers, perhaps. They’re the ones most likely willing and eager to try it, maybe even investing in it. You’ll also get the staunch critics who liken it to science fiction—the evil kind—and lump it in with genetically modified organisms aka “Frankenfoods”. And in this day and age, possibly even vaccine conspiracies a la “Is there a microchip in that lab-grown steak?” Then, there’s the fundamentalist, those who say food is sacred (they’re not wrong there). They may not have ever even heard of the tech until you brought it up, but they will undoubtedly insist “food comes from the earth”, never mind the fact that, like George Carlin once reminded us, everything is natural–as in, comes from the earth—even if it’s steak that’s grown in a lab.

Are any of them right?

What is cultivated meat?

For the uninitiated, a brief, oversimplified science lesson: cultivated meat is animal meat, but no animals are slaughtered to produce it (except, some are—more on that in a bit). It is not a Beyond Burger or Impossible Nuggets made with plants to mimic the taste and texture of meat. It is, at a cellular level, meat; it is the same meat in nutrition, taste, and texture as animal meat. Only, it’s grown from a small tissue sample taken from a live animal—almost like getting one of those up-the-nose Covid tests—instead of needing to breed and kill billions of animals every year to do it. 

Scientists have been growing all manner of tissue samples this way for decades. That part isn’t exactly new. But taking a few cells from a cow, pig, chicken, or fish and feeding them a liquid diet that keeps them alive and multiplying, producing meat that is for all intents and purposes indistinguishable from slaughtered meat, is very new. It’s also very expensive meat. And for the industry booming around it: very exciting meat.

It is, of course, far more complicated than that, but to understand its potential and its challenges, it’s enough of a baseline to move forward in considering whether or not cultivated meat can replace animal meat, and, perhaps, most significantly, whether or not it should.

Inigo de la Maza / Unsplash

Explaining the cultivated meat technology and its potential impact on our food system isn’t just fodder for interesting dinner party conversations, though. Cultivated meat (also known as lab-grown meat, cell-based meat, cultured meat, and once upon a time, clean meat) is big business—life purposes for some, even—with companies around the world securing billions in investments, groundbreaking regulatory approvals for the novel tech, and a growing roster of interest from the world’s top chefs, food scientists, and curious consumers. In Israel, the first country to offer tastings of the tech, two heads of state have tried it. In the US, the USDA is getting in on the action, most recently funding a Tufts University research facility with a $10 million grant. Traditional meat producers, like Cargill, are investing in it, too. 

But is the technology ever going to truly displace animal meat? We raise 55 billion land animals and pull trillions of fish out of the oceans every year. Can bioreactors replicate all of that? In an article published by The Counter in September, the answer was: probably not, but it probably should. 

For proponents of the tech, it’s not so black and white.

Science: past, present, and future

“First, this is science,” Bruce Friedrich, founder and executive director of the Good Food Institute (GFI) told Green Queen via email. “Doing what was previously considered impossible is (a big part of) the entire business of science. See electric vehicles, cheap solar panels, cheap wind energy, the Human Genome Project, semiconductors, and so much more. Breakthroughs and moonshots are tough, but they’re (of course) not impossible. In all these cases, while a lot of people couldn’t see the path and decided that meant there wasn’t one, others happily charged forward and created the possibilities they had envisioned.”

His examples are sound. Need a more relatable example? Try explaining a Walkman to an eight-year-old. Or why phones had to be tethered to walls for a century. Or why films were once black and white. George Jetson-esque technology is all around in ways most of us only dreamed of realizing a few decades ago. And all of them were deemed impossible at one point. But so were those relic technologies that preceded them, too.

CDC / Unsplash

At the center of The Counter’s article was a recent report published by GFI. As one of the biggest supporters of alternative proteins, be it via plants or labs, GFI says that commercial-scale production of cultivated meat is indeed on its way, and it will eventually reach price parity with animal meat.

According to The Counter, though, that’s a lot harder to make possible than it sounds. A consultant formerly with Pfizer mentioned in The Counter’s article said the GFI report left out key costs related to production and underestimated the expense and complexity of building facilities capable of producing cultivated meat at scale. 

Data sets compiled by the Effective Altruism Forum show that only nine out of 273 predictions on the market timelines for cultivated meat were resolved correctly. Seventy-five have resolved incorrectly, and another 40, which are expected to resolve by the end of the year, are also expected to resolve incorrectly.

“Overall, the state of these predictions suggest very systematic overconfidence,” writes Neil Dullaghan, a senior staff researcher at Rethink Priorities. “Cultured meat seems to have been perpetually just a few years away since as early as 2010 and this track record plausibly should make us skeptical of future claims from producers that cultured meat is just a few years away.”

Cultivated meat investing

Investors see a different outcome. More than $366 million was raised by cultivated protein companies in 2020, alone, an increase of more than six times over 2019’s numbers, according to GFI’s report. The number of companies in the space is now near 100.

Funding is making it possible for these companies to get off the ground and focus on the various aspects of the technology, including efforts to bring the price down. 

Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed, founder and CEO of KBW Ventures, has invested in plant-based, cultivated meat, and other food tech. He was an investor in TurtleTree’s $30 million Series A earlier this month—it uses cell-based technology to create dairy. He says we have to look at the progress that’s been made already to gauge where the technology is going.

“The timeline to delivering cultivated meats to the market at scale seems daunting to some, but if you consider the leaps we’ve already made in terms of the scientific landscape and the business landscape it’s actually not,” he told Green Queen.

“This year alone we’ve seen a few different production facilities launch, some very significant deals signed on the mass distribution front including BlueNalu and European giant Nomad Foods, and we’ve seen a few future-forward governments not only acknowledge but actually move forward with cell-based meat companies,” Prince Khaled says.

Michal Klar, an investor who’s backed Upside Foods and China’s CellX, says he believes it’s a viable technology and will continue investing in the space.

Higher Steaks/courtesy

“But I am a realist,” he told Green Queen. “I do not think we will see cultivated ribeye steak with taste, texture and price parity vs. conventional one any time soon. My view is that this tech will come to market in stages. Starting from small batch, high-end products and hybrids, where small amount of cultivated tissue or fat will be added to plant-based or biomass-based products.”

Klar says these efforts might not be disrupting the protein market at large, but, he says they will be important milestones for the sector.

“And companies that can figure out the tech and bring those first products to market over the next decade, will be positioned to become very impactful in subsequent years, as they solve scale up challenges and drive the price down,” Klar says.

Prince Khaled says we’re just at the beginning in terms of funding for cultivated meat, and as more money comes in, the tech will advance. “Between plant-based proteins and fermentation, this sector specifically is the least capitalized now with a lot of room for growth,” he says. “I see ample investment dollars rolling in from institutional investors and traditional meat companies alike in the coming months; this type of capital fuels development.”

At a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh last month, the Prince urged governments to work with entrepreneurs to solve the number of crises facing the planet, namely those around food security and climate change.

“Governments see the problem, but now they need to adopt the innovative technologies to solve the problem,” Prince Khaled said. 

He told Green Queen that he expects to see cultivated meat in new markets “very soon.” It’s one of the reasons his KBW Ventures has invested and re-invested in companies, as in the case of TurtleTree. “We’re going to market alongside these future-makers,” he says.

Cultivated meat’s future

That future Prince Khaled speaks of hinges a bit on an ethos not dissimilar to Walt Disney’s famous quote: “it’s kind of fun to do the impossible.” There are overlaps here. Disney was a visionary who was repeatedly told his dreams were either ridiculous or untenable—often both. But he thrived in the corner and pushed through most successfully; first in feature-length cartoon films (kicked off with the grossly over-budget 1937 release of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs), and in the realization of a character-based theme park hosted by a giant mouse and his giant friends. 

We often forget that technology is first and foremost an idea—a human idea. To think it’s a limited resource pool points us toward the gates of Camp Luddite, no matter how much we embrace past or current technologies.

Technology has and will always get better, and, crucially, in ways we can’t imagine. Albert Einstein frequently dismissed his genius, saying the secret to his success was simply staying with problems longer than his contemporaries. And in this ADHD-fueled world (indeed a byproduct of technology, too), that can seem like the impasse on the road. We’re so keen to just move on—or in some cases, turn back. But for those who linger a little longer, they’ll eventually find a way through those roadblocks.

Wildtype / courtesy

If the biggest roadblock to taking cultivated meat mainstream is cost, then that’s what the industry’s most determined experts will focus on fixing first. They already have. In Singapore, where San Francisco’s Eat Just received the world’s first regulatory approval to sell its cultivated chicken, which it did for a limited time through the restaurant 1880, it took a loss on the chicken nuggets, even though they weren’t cheap; they cost about $17 USD for just two of the lab-grown nuggets. This is way down from the price of the first lab-grown burger, which was cooked in 2013 and cost an estimated €250,000 to produce. 

The only real problem with price, though, is that the true cost of meat isn’t reflected at retail. It’s far more abstract and complicated. That’s due primarily to monstrous subsidies that keep meat (and egg and dairy) prices unrealistically low. Friedrich has long been advocating for government funding and support of cultivated meat—just like the government props up the conventional meat and dairy industries. If there’s going to be a meaningful shift in our food system—including Biden’s new methane targets—it’s going to have to include the same assistance offered to the protein industries at large. 

The need for that shift is becoming increasingly urgent. Livestock production and fishing are wreaking havoc on, well, everything. Traditional protein production is destroying ecosystems, poisoning air and waterways, overconsuming resources, and linked to some of the biggest health and labor crises in history. 

Do we need cultivated meat?

“When I started working on GFI six years ago, I assumed what was the consensus: We’re way too early for cultivated meat to go commercial—it’s decades away if it’s possible at all,” Friedrich says. “The first thing GFI did was to hire scientists, including our current VP for science and technology, Dr. Liz Specht, and my first question to them was, ‘can cultivated meat be cost-competitive with commodity meat?’ I made it clear (and I still make it clear) that our goal is to find out what’s true and to proceed accordingly,” he says.

“If cultivated meat were not promising, we’d just focus more or entirely on plant-based meat and fermentation,” Friedrich says. The group is agnostic in its efforts to displace animal agriculture. There will likely be other solutions we’ve yet to imagine that GFI will also lend its support to in the not-too-distant future.

“It’s because we think cultivated meat has a strong chance of viability that we include it in our strategy,” Friedrich says. “The more GFI’s scientists and partners within life sciences and biomanufacturing companies and academia (all over the world) delve into this field, the more convinced they become that it can be done at costs below that of conventional meat.”

Friedrich’s clear that there’s good reason to keep steering toward that goal. Pivoting into plant-based is easy. That industry also continues to innovate. Plant-based has not plateaued—quite the opposite. Impossible Foods, one of the leading producers of plant-based meat, has raised more than $1.5 billion since 2011. As it gears up to IPO, it’s valued at close to $10 billion. 

By comparison, the largest cultivated meat producer by investment total, Upside Foods (formerly Memphis Meats), has raised just over $200 million over the last five years.

Adobe stock

The technology isn’t just focusing just on supermarket meat, though. And for Henri Kunz, co-founder of Furoid, the Dutch startup working to produce another type of cultivated animal product—fur–there’s even more opportunity outside of the supermarket. At least, when it comes to reaching price parity sooner. 

Kunz says the Techno Economic Analyses like those referenced in The Counter’s article are all based on “what has been done before,” not necessarily what “can be done.” He argues that’s an important distinction.

One of the key parallels The Counter draws to cultivated meat is achievements and challenges in pharma tech. But according to Kunz, “neither of the TEAs provides useful suggestions on how to beat the amino acid prices of the fermentation industry, nor how to design bioreactor systems that can reduce the costs of contamination at scale.”

Kunz also points to the luxury market as an important target because there, he says, it’s easier to achieve price parity with say cultivated mink fur, foie gras, or caviar than it is to compete with a 99¢ fast-food burger. 

“We believe smaller-scale luxury foods and clothing materials are better candidates as the first cultivated products that would usher in this new era of bio-identical sustainability,” he says.

There’s certainly a need. While demand for fur has dropped in recent years, other animal-based textiles, such as cashmere, are on the uptick. Across Mongolia, the world’s second-largest cashmere producing nation behind China, goatherds have risen dramatically in recent years, up five times what they were in 1990.

While there are a growing number of initiatives in place angled at making the wool and cashmere industries more sustainable, the farming boom is putting pressure on local ecosystems, threatening species like the elusive snow leopard as a result. 

Impossible meat / courtesy

It’s also easy to argue in favor of plant-based meat instead of cultivated meat if for no other reason than our health. While a bioreactor reduces the need to raise and slaughter a cow, it doesn’t reduce the risk of heart disease and cholesterol the same way a fiber-rich meal does. It is meat, after all, not kale. 

According to George Peppou, founder of Australian cultivated meat company Vow, it’s about seeing cultivated meat as its own category. In a recent op-ed, he says that while he agrees with much of what The Counter suggests, the goal of cultivated meat isn’t about replacing animal meat 1:1—it’s about creating an entirely new category, “we create new foods that industrial animal agriculture can’t,” he said. “In the very long term, as our ability to engineer biology improves, I believe cultured meat will become the cheapest way to make protein, but it will take decades to reach this point.”

Cultivated meat challenges

One of the biggest challenges is the use of FBS—fetal bovine serum—the main source of food for the cells. It’s a controversial practice; the serum is sourced from cow fetuses. It poses ethical questions, certainly, but it also puts a roadblock in the sustainability mantra touted by the industry at large. To access the fetal tissue, cows must be impregnated and then slaughtered to produce it. This keeps livestock fully tethered to the cultivated meat production chain. If a cow must be raised, impregnated, and killed to grow meat in a bioreactor, doesn’t it make more sense to just eat that slaughtered cow? Through a sustainability lens, that would seem to be the case. 

Companies are working on more ethical, sustainable, and affordable solutions, though. A recent article in The Spoon highlighted several startups in the space working to produce alternatives to FBS. Mosa Meats, the cultivated meat pioneer behind that €250,000 burger, said it switched to a new growth medium last year that was able to bring down costs 88 percent.  

“What we have done is pretty breathtaking,” Laura Jackisch, the head of the Fat Team for Mosa Meats told Time Magazine earlier this month. “Figuring out how to make a replacement [for FBS] that’s also affordable means that we can actually sell this product to the masses.” 

Food systems expert Errol Schweizer, former VP of Grocery at Whole Foods, has questions around other issues with cultivated meat. He says we have to look at all possibilities, certainly the common practices in conventional livestock production. 

“Will growth hormones be involved in the cultivation of these products, and if so, would the final consumer-facing product contain hormone traces or residue?” he asked recently in Forbes.  

Jo-Anne Mcarthur / Unpslash

“What are the types of molecular scaffolds that such products will be built on and will such ingredients be transparent to consumers?” Schweizer asks. “Will they be animal-derived, GMO-derived/plant-based or plastic/synthetic? How will they influence the allergenicity of the final product if derived from common allergens such as soy, corn, crustaceans, fungi or insects? How will insect or crustacean-derived scaffolding affect Kosher or halal certification?”

In an interview with Green Queen earlier this year, Schweizer also questioned the monies coming into the cultivated meat industry. He also pointed out that placing our food system under the purview of nascent technology is risky, especially if that comes at the expense of other food system solutions. 

“I think folks who are advocates for [cultivated meat] should be very wary of the type of money that’s coming into that space, and what not only the returns that will be asked for, but the potential ownership, governance and control of those technologies will be within the next two to three or four to five years,” Schweizer said.

“Once you know those investors, and they’re accountable to their limited partners, they’re accountable to their shareholders, you know, they need to show that return, and then also the fact that it’s high risk money and that not all those companies will make it. But then, it’s also investment that’s not going into other aspects of the food system.”

There are other challenges that put cultivated meat’s viability further into question, such as the risk of contamination inherent with working with live cells. Just as we’re all too familiar with how quickly a virus can spread amongst humans, so too could it infect lab environments. The bigger the cultivated meat factory, the more difficult it is to ensure secure environments. But compare that to the challenge of keeping more than 55 billion land animals relatively disease-free before slaughter—foodborne illnesses are not uncommon, the result often of sick animals in a supply chain designed for speed, not precision. If we can say our animal-based food system, for all of its risks, is mostly safe, it would seem sterilized food labs would be even safer, even at their worst.

‘Code Red’ for humanity

But this isn’t about acing your next physical. This is about animal agriculture and what it has done and will continue to do to the planet. And if humans can have their steak and eat it, too, even if the timeline for that dinner is still a tad bit fuzzy, shouldn’t we at least try?

'No Going Back': UN Delivers Its Most Urgent Climate Warning In a Decade
Kelly Sikkema / Unsplash

“We’re at ‘code red for humanity’ on climate change. The U.N. says that on our current trajectory, we’ll need to produce 70 to 100 percent more meat by 2050, the vast majority of that in developing countries,” Friedrich says. 

“Literally no one has a plausible solution for how we stem that tide, other than alternative meat production methods; simply educating people for the past 50 years hasn’t even cut meat production in the U.S. and Europe (it’s way, way up in both places),” he says.

 It seems the door is too wide open to turn back now, at any rate. Comparing lentils to lab-grown meat doesn’t just miss the point, it derails progress. Maybe cultivated meat isn’t the end goal, but it’s certainly an important route toward a food system better angled at meeting the needs of our changing planet. To borrow from an ironically appropriate adage: there are many ways to skin a cat. And in the case of cultivated meat, it doesn’t have to involve the cat at all.

“Maybe plant-based and whole biomass fermentation offer all the food tech we need, but GFI’s scientists think that cultivated meat (like so many tech innovations before) is promising,” Friedrich says. “Climate NGOs, governments, and the science community should go all-in on making it happen.”

Featured image courtesy New Age Meats | Creative Commons

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