Tesco Admits Plant-Based Meat Target Is ‘Highly Unlikely’ Amid Changing UK Diets

The UK’s largest retailer is not on track to meet its goal of increasing plant-based meat sales by 300% by this year, as consumers show an appetite for vegetables, beans, and tofu instead.

In a further sign of the UK’s dietary shift towards plant-based whole foods, its largest supermarket says it is “highly unlikely” to achieve its ambitious sales target for meat alternatives.

Tesco is well behind its goal of increasing purchases of vegan meat products by 300% by December 2025 (from a 2012 baseline), given “the year-on-year decline in the plant-based market” and the “change in approach” by consumers.

“Many of our customers who are interested in plant-based foods are turning to veg-led dishes, where vegetables are the star, rather than relying on meat alternatives,” the retailer said in its latest sustainability report.

It revealed that it has exceeded its reduction targets for scopes 1 and 2 emissions, cutting them by 65% from a 2015/16 baseline. But 98% of its carbon footprint comes from scope 3 emissions, which account for the entire value chain and the use of its products by consumers.

Tesco has lowered some of its scope 3 emissions by 22% in this period, and has pledged to reduce forest, land use and agriculture (FLAG) emissions by 39% by 2032.

Plant-based meat sales slow at Tesco

The retailer first established the meat alternative sales goal in 2020, pledging to add more products across 20 categories, reduce prices, work with suppliers to innovate new products, and provide a meat alternative wherever a meat version is featured.

While it started well, recording increases of 96% and 130% in 2020/21 and 2021/22, respectively, compared to the 2018 baseline. This growth began shrinking in 2022/23, when its sales were only up by 119%, followed by a 109% hike in 2023/24. In the last year, however, plant-based meat sales at Tesco are only 94% higher than in 2018, a far cry from the 300% goal.

It’s in line with the wider trend around plant-based meat. In the first half of 2024, average weekly sales value and volumes of these products declined by 7% in the UK compared to 2023, when sales had already come down by 6% and volumes by 13%.

“We’ve been seeing a growing demand for ‘protein diversity’, including plant-based whole foods such as lentils, chickpeas, beans, nuts, seeds and tofu,” Tesco said in its report.

Vegetable-led foods now make up 40% of all plant-based sales at Tesco, according to data from IRI/Circana. In the 41 weeks to October 12, the supermarket sold nearly 600,000 more veg-forward dishes, compared to the same period in 2023.

“These dishes inspire and make it easy for customers to incorporate more vegetables into their diets,” the retailer said, while noting that it has “seen plant-based meat alternative sales slow” at the same time.

Tesco also noted that the proportion of protein sales coming from plant-based alternatives has decreased from 12% in 2020/21 to 9% in 2024/25, against a four-point increase for meat and egg products. That said, the share of dairy sales emanating from oat, almond, and other alternatives has expanded slightly from 5% to 7% in this period.

Gut health and UPFs in focus as Tesco stocks whole-food proteins

With Brits showing a greater appetite for whole foods over meat analogues, Tesco doubled down on pulses, nuts, seeds and vegetable-based ingredients in its vegan range for Christmas 2024, labelling it phase two of the “biggest food trend this century”. Likewise, it recently introduced a meat-free Root & Soul ready meal range that puts vegetables front and centre.

These products are targeting the 22% of Brits who want to consume more plant-based foods, according to Tesco’s research. Last month, it began stocking THIS’s Super Superfood and Oh So Wholesome’s Veg’chop – a new class of plant protein ingredients made from whole foods, with the aim of replacing meat instead of mimicking it.

“Most retailers are looking for more plant-packed, healthy and minimally processed foods with clean ingredient lists across the store. In plant-based specifically, I think the whole market knows that some changes need to be made to excite shoppers and inspire home cooks,” Oh So Wholesome co-founder Simon Day told Green Queen. “Tesco specifically have often been at the forefront of plant-based category development in the UK and led with new ranges.”

Tesco is keeping a close eye on the conversation around ultra-processed foods (UPFs), which have been linked to a range of health issues and even early death. Nutritionists have pointed to gaps in how these foods are classified, given that most plant-based meat alternatives, often identified as UPFs, are painted with the same brush as sugary sodas, packaged cakes and desserts, and ice creams.

In the UK, they make up 57% of calorie consumption, rising to around two-thirds among adolescents and 80% for children or people with lower incomes. “We already ban the use of many additives in our own-brand products, including some flavours, colours and MSG, and we work with our suppliers to minimise the use of others,” the retailer said.

All this is part of its healthy eating push too, with the retailer planning to increase sales of healthy products to 65% of its total by 2025 (by the end of 2024, it got to 64%). This includes Tesco’s gut health focus. Its polling found that gut wellness is a top concern for 37% of Brits this year, thanks to movements like ’30 plants a week’ and documentaries such as Netflix’s Hack Your Health, pushing it to launch its own-label Gut Sense brand in January.

“Future progress will be harder won. There are challenges we won’t be able to solve alone without wider policy or societal shifts. It will require even greater commitment, innovation and cross-sector collaboration – with farmers and suppliers, industry and government – to drive progress,” said Tesco CEO Ken Murphy.

“Whether that’s tougher laws to prevent deforestation, regulation requiring food businesses to report their healthy sales volumes in a consistent way, or more support and policy certainty for British agriculture.”